The basis of the argument is;
All forms of random crap exist.
Random crap must have a cause.
The universe is made of random crap.
Thus the universe has a cause.
That cause must be God.
The other version is more like;
Random crap exists.
Random crap which exists has the potential to not exist.
If something has the potential to not exist, yet it does, it was caused.
There cannot be an infinite number of causes for random crap. No infinite regression.
Thus there has to be a cause for random crap.
That cause has to be God.
Does matter have the potential to not exist? I mean... It could not be here, but what purpose would that really serve? I've got a notepad in front of me, it exists. It could not exist, but odds are, I'd just have a different notepad in front of me. I don't see how that can strengthen an argument.
I don't see why the acceptance of an infinite god who's always been there is no problem, but some energy or matter which was just "always there" is ridiculed by the religious community. Ok, so random crap has to have a cause, because it cannot make itself exist. So using Occam's razor, the best explanation is God.
I think the "When in doubt, chalk it up to God." mentality is dangerous and I don't think it should remain our way of describing things we don't understand rather than endeavoring to learn.